Probabilistic Risk Assessment
The use of probabilistic risk assessment by engineers is handicapped by data limitations and the difficulty of conducting realistic experiments on complete systems involving human behaviour. These problems may be overcome by applying a variety of simulation model originally developed in operations research. These models make efficient use of the available data and can be used to test alternate risk management strategies. They can be complemented by Monte Carlo methods to take account of uncertainty in the data, measure the sensitivity of the casualty rate to remedial measures and make quantitative estimates of risk.
Here is a list of my publications on mineral economics, systems models and risk assessment.
Comments and criticisms by e-mail would be very welcome.
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